Ambiguous gains at Durban Climate Summit.

At the latest International conference on Climate Change in Durban South Africa, two weeks of negotiating, and an exhaustive 60 hour- final session led to an international agreement on climate change.  Well, at least an agreement to come to an agreement.  Reports are mixed, but delegates did finally all agree to negotiating a treaty that 1) even poorer nations must agree to limits on emissions, and 2) that the agreement have legal force.

The resistance among developing nations to be held accountable for cumulative emissions of the developed world has been great.  The US, and EU have little interest in lifting all the heavy weight themselves during a recession, especially with China moving into the lead in world wide emissions.  While it may be true that the situation is dire enough to require everyone’s efforts.  The US still emits 20 metric tons of carbon per capita, to China’s 5, and India’s 1.5. (figures from Amy Goodman, et al.), and Dennis Moynahan. At the latest International conference on Climate Change in Durban South Africa, two weeks of negotiating, and an exhaustive 60 hour- final session led to an international agreement on climate change.  Well, at least an agreement to come to an agreement.  Reports are mixed, but delegates did finally all agree to negotiating a treaty that 1) even poorer nations must agree to limits on emissions, and 2) that the agreement have legal force.

The resistance among developing nations to be held accountable for cumulative emissions of the developed world has been great.  The US, and EU have little interest in lifting all the heavy weight themselves during a recession, especially with China moving into the lead in world wide emissions.  While it may be true that the situation is dire enough to require everyone’s efforts.  The US still emits 20 metric tons of carbon per capita, to China’s 5, and India’s 1.5. (figures from Amy Goodman)

Difficult negotiations lay ahead. Fiona Harvey and John Vidal of the Guardian wrote: "Governments face four gruelling years of horse-trading over how far and how fast each country should cut its carbon, in order to flesh out the bones of the deal.

Agreements need to be found reached by 2015, so that a binding agreement could go into effect in 2020.  This means another decade of run away emissions.  True many countries have set voluntary goals in the meantime, but most of those goals are weak, and nations have given themselves lots of wiggle room. 

According to Journalist Amy Goodman, The US delegate Todd Stern stated the Obama administrations support for the EU proposal for a binding agreement that was eventually adopted.  That evening, however, the US State Dept. issued a clarification that the US had not agreed to support a binding agreement. Questioned the next day, Stern refused to clarify the US position. See Video:

Many scientists believe we will have lost an opportunity to curb global warming at 2’ C (3.6’F). Delegates from Africa called it a death sentence. The guardian article, which was generally positive an agreement was reached, quoted Keith Allott, of the World Wildlife Fund-UK, who said: "Governments have salvaged a path forward for negotiations, but we must be under no illusion — the outcome of Durban leaves us with the prospect of being legally bound to a world of 4C ( over 7’F) warming. This would be catastrophic for people and the natural world.”

Perhaps we should be cheered that any framework was adopted.  One can hardly call Durbin a success, or the US role, an example of leadership.