Climate Change in the Ct. River Valley

While the laws of physics and chemistry require that climate change will impact the watershed, a wide range of new weather patterns is possible. By studying expected changes in regional climate, and applying them to local geography and weather patterns, researchers hope to estimate a likely range of average temperatures, precipitation, and wind patterns. These estimates will be adjusted constantly as the climate science grows more sophisticated, and the actual rate of CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions, becomes clear. Specific weather forecasts can never be predicted more than a few weeks in advance.

Dr. Richard Palmer, head of the Civil and Environmental Engineering Dept., and a principle investigator at the new Northeast Climate Research Center  at UMass, Amherst said that initial studies indicate a 3-4% increase of water in the Ct. River watershed annually, over this century, which could help satisfy the increasing demands for water from towns and industry. The river’s water levels after peak snowmelt, however, may be lower than average, and extreme rainfall events more common, according to Palmer.

Palmer said he would not say that tropical storm Irene was caused by climate change, rather, that it was “indicative of what we can expect.” Palmer added: “If you were to ask me- ‘Will the 100 year event become more likely to be a fifty year event? Or a 40 year event?’ I would say ‘Yes.’ ” However, Palmer said it would take a “catastrophic event to shift the actual floodplain.” He added; “There’s this great tendency of people just to keep building closer and closer to river, to the view.”

Palmer warned: “We have dikes because the real floodplain is on the other side.

Levees fail.